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";s:4:"text";s:32210:"As the U.S . On many occasions after his ascension to power, President Xi Jingping renewed urgency for demands that China master new technology,7 arguing that “scientific and technological strength determines changes in the world balance of political and economic power, and determines the fate of every nation.”8 Among a variety of emerging technologies, Chinese leadership started to pay attention to AI and made it a national priority in 2015.9 Within the past several years, multiple national science and technology strategies and plans have been issued, constituting a nation-wide campaign aimed at occupying the “high ground” of AI technology.10 11 With the guidelines provided by such documents, both public and private sectors are mobilizing to participate in the AI campaign. This is an important report compilation of testimony at a hearing about the military technologies China is considering or pursuing at the global technological frontier, its ability to develop innovative technologies going forward, and the ... With the reinforcement of AI, both offensive and defensive capabilities of the Chinese military on nuclear, cyber, and space domains will be consolidated and improved. 3 (May 1, 2019): p 124. 36  Peter Warren, Wired for War : The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the Twenty-First Century (New York: Penguin Books, 2010),. The PLA’s strategists have begun to discuss how to win on cognitive dimension and seize “metal/cognitive domination” (制脑权) in future warfare.62 On the one hand, polymeric technology, which combines brain science, biological technology, and artificial intelligence, will not only improve soldiers’ cognitive ability but also create an effective brain-machine interface, which may make some sci-fi super soldiers possible. 1 (2016): p12. China's military buildup threatens its neighbors and regional stability in the Far East. While difficult to evaluate the sophistication of these emerging capabilities, this initial analysis concentrates on indicators of progress in weapons systems that may possess a range of levels of autonomy. 27 July 2021. Every vehicle in such a system is an intelligence-gathering and analysis hub, which means collection and processing can be finished on the same end. North China University of Technology and equipment departments of PLA’s army, navy, and rocket force founded the Military-Civil Fusion Intelligent Equipment Research Institute.26 Tsinghua University established its Military-Civil Fusion National Defense Peak Technologies Laboratory. 4  “China’s National Defense in the New Era,” The State Council Information Office of PRC, June 2019: http://eng.mod.gov.cn/publications/2019-07/24/content_4846452.htm . Zhou Chenming, a Beijing-based military expert, said technological advances in artificial intelligence and quantum computing did not necessarily need to be applied to the military sphere. 47  Michael C. Horowitz, “The Promise and Peril of Military Application of Artificial Intelligence,” Bulletin of Atomic Scientist, April 23, 2018: https://thebulletin.org/2018/04/the-promise-and-peril-of- military-applications-of-artificial-intelligence/. Webinar: Global China — Assessing China’s technological reach in the world 3 (May 1, 2019): p124. 2 (2015): 7–50. For a region that is already tense and crowded, a regional competition for AI primacy may trigger an AI arms race and pose an ambiguous effect on arms control concerning autonomous lethal weapon systems. China has long been concerned about false negatives from its early warning systems, which may result in failures to detect nuclear attacks.72 To some extent, such concerns are rooted in China’s assumptions about its own early warning deficiencies and its own inability to counter a stealthy and prompt precision strike from the United States.73 Regarding China’s employment of nuclear weapons, military-technology considerations stressing the plausible U.S. conventional military operation against Chinese nuclear capabilities are the reasons behind China’s use of limited nuclear escalation.74 As a result, if China gains greater situational awareness and can strengthen its nuclear retaliatory capabilities by applying AI technology to its C4ISR and early- warning systems, some of its insecurities about a “bolt-out-of-the-blue” strike may be mitigated, which will stabilize the nuclear risk.75Yet China’s insecurities are not simply a question of technology. Former Google Cloud CEO Diane Greene stated, “we can not control all downstream uses of our technology.”. More importantly, intensive sensors facilitated by machine learning technology will process the intelligence they capture at a flashing speed so that the time between identifying targets and attacking targets is radically reduced, increasing the rate of fire.41 In other words, situational awareness capabilities strengthened by AI will not only accelerate the traditional OODA loop but also make a “storm of steel” fired by autonomous vehicles and intelligent weapons possible. SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF CHINESE MILITARY’S EMPLOYMENT OF AI. In a world that is becoming one giant sensor, hiding and penetrating will be far more difficult.42 In such conditions, AI technology will help identify the weaknesses of enemy defense lines and improve routine planning by enhancing situational awareness capacity. Nevertheless, AI technology offers methods to solve these problems. 38  Elsa B. Kania, “Battlefield Singularity: Artificial Intelligence, Military Revolution, and China’s Future Military Power,” Center for a New American Security, November 2017, p 23. Comparing development efforts in the United States, China, and Russia (as well as various positions on proposals to regulate or ban autonomous weapons), the authors point to a need for the United States to continue to pursue advantages in the field and explore confidence . The introduction of machine learning algorithms to the analysis process for satellite imagery and other sensors can enable a “prediction revolution” that could support PLA’s early warning capabilities.48 For instance, AI start-up iFlytek’s voice recognition and synthesis module technology are useful for communication surveillance and radio sensing. Guidance for the Brookings community and the public on our response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) », Learn more from Brookings scholars about the global response to coronavirus (COVID-19) ». The PLA’s employment of AI-enabled early-warning systems and unmanned intelligent combat vehicles will enhance China’s awareness of Japanese and South Korean operations in disputed areas like the Senkaku Islands and enable a quick response capability. We researched the military and defense space to discover how and where AI is utilized today by the world’s militaries and intelligence organizations as well as the capabilities artificial intelligence could bring to the sector shortly. And it warns Russia and China would be unlikely to . Chinese soldiers march past Tiananmen Square before a military parade on September 3, 2015 in Beijing, China . The Chinese military and China’s defense industry have been pursuing significant investments in robotics, swarming, and other applications of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML). 68  Jiang Tianjiao, “The Impact of Military Artificial Intelligence on Warfare,” in Lore Saalman, ed., The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Strategic Stability and Nuclear Risk, Volume II (Stockholm: SIPRI, 2019), p51. 80  Stephen Biddle and Ivan Oelrich, “Future Warfare in the Western Pacific: Chinese Anti-access/Area Denial, U.S. Air-Sea Battle, and Command of the Commons in East Asia,” International Security 41, no. The extent . The authors of this report examine military applications of artificial intelligence (AI); compare development efforts in the United States, China, and Russia; and consider the ethical implications of employing military AI in war and peace. First and foremost, a huge volume of high-quality data is required to train AI algorithms and enable machine learning. As the Pentagon prepares its report into UFOs, due later this month, Chinese military researchers have turned to artificial intelligence to track and analyse the increasing number of unknown . It is likely that the race to dominate the 5G network will have some profound consequences for the use of AI in any military. Deep learning technology is likely to substantially increase the efficiency and accuracy of interpreting patterns in raw intelligence so that enemies’ intents and actions can be better understood. A commander told the PLA Daily that the AI . Other measures, including educational programs, “going out” strategy, and military-civil fusion, have also been implemented tobolster AI innovation. This unmanned tactic is superior to the traditional OODA-style way of fighting in terms of low cost and high efficiency. Since 2006, China has steadily developed a national agenda for artificial intelligence development, and has . For Beijing, the prospect of the United States resuming a forward-deployed, tactical nuclear posture exacerbates its sense of encirclement. China's military-civil fusion aids the growth of wargames. In its annual report to Congress on the Chinese military, released Sept. 1, the Department of Defense noted that China sees emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, big-data analytics, quantum information and unmanned systems as driving a shift toward intelligentized warfare. First, a structural transformation in China’s higher educational system has paralleled the adaptation of the AI revolution in industrial sectors.16 Already, 43 universities have dedicated new AI departments, with another 35 colleges receiving funds from the Ministry of Education in 2019 to offer AI as majors.17 Academic conferences and seminars are held frequently to facilitate the diffusion and proliferation of AI know-how among Chinese academia. 45  Gu Kang, Li Yaming, Liu Ping, “Research on the Development of Intelligent Electronic Countermeasures Equipment,” Defense Technology Review, Vol.39, No.2, April 2018, p78-81. On the one hand, intelligent distribution across the communication spectrum to maintain a complex electromagnetic environment secures the network connection among different combat branches. China’s national AI strategy has strong support from its private sector. China was poised to “overtake the US in the most-cited 50% of papers” in 2019,20 which displays the success of China’s efforts to overtake the United States in AI research. It should be noted China’s weaponization of AI is also occurring in the information and psychological domain. [20] Over the past decade, the lack of key expertise and high-tech components needed to build long-range combat and strike UAVs have challenged the Russian defense industry. During the meeting, the Chinese leader was photographed at the PLA Academy of Military Sciences shaking hands with Major General Li Deyi, a leading authority on artificial intelligence, or AI, and . 14  Hasan Chowdhury, “China’s tech giants spending more on AI than Silicon Valley,” The Telegraph, October 8, 2018. However, given the significant uncertainty about the pace and trajectory of AI innovation,5 it is still hard to predict how AI might contribute to various kinds of military power, and to what extent. 57  Liu Quanzhan and Li Bo, “Big Data: The Magic Weapon for Victory in Informatized Operation,” PLA Daily, November 15, 2015; 58  Elsa B. Kania, “Battlefield Singularity: Artificial Intelligence, Military Revolution, and China’s Future Military Power,” Center for a New American Security, November 2017, p28. As of 2021, the market of artificial intelligence is worth about RMB 150 billion (US$23.196 billion), and the figure is projected to reach RMB 400 billion (US$61.855 billion) by 2025. It has already sold the drone to the UAE and is in negotiations with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Many seemingly “Chinese” AI achievements are actually achievements of multinational research teams and companies, and such international collaboration has been critical to China’s research progress. In an era that is overloaded by the high volume of information, a new challenge facing the Chinese military is the effective processing of huge amounts of raw intelligence and the accurate interpretation of the real meaning behind information flows. Chinese State Council, New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan, Order No. Drawing on open-source Chinese-language documents, Ms. Kania explains Chinese strategic thinking on AI and specific military applications that Chinese leaders envision. Chinese surveillance assets at Fiery Cross Reef on June 9, 2021. Use of the term “intelligentized” is meant to signify a new stage of military technology beyond the current stage based on information technology. According to the state-owned developer China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, it can “plot out its own route, swim to shore, avoid obstacles, and it can also be remotely controlled by an operator.” Given recent forays into expanding its territory in the South Pacific, the Marine Lizard ay prove useful to their aims if it works as advertised. Future intelligent systems based on 5G technology can more efficiently collect, transmit, and process massive battlefield data, providing real-time data analysis results for commanders.46. 15  Meng Jing, “China’s First ‘Deep Learning Lab’ Intensifies Challenge to U.S. in Artificial Intelligence Race,” South China Morning Post, February 21, 2017. Over time, this may make this type of control through surveillance not only acceptable but the norm in many countries. Indeed, China has identified AI as key to enhancing national competitiveness and protecting national security and has put forth a national AI plan The rapid pursuit of China for AI supremacy, with little time for testing for accuracy and reliability, can backfire quite badly. I am so old that I remember when the USSR's launch of Sputnik, the first satellite humans put into orbit, triggered panic and the . China's military is working to adopt artificial intelligence and autonomous technology as quickly as it can. Thanks for subscribing to the Emerj "AI Advantage" newsletter, check your email inbox for confirmation. On a structural level, the totalistic system increases the ruling regime’s ability to exercise control and direct the socioeconomic field.28 Combined with the powerful mobilization capacity of the CCP, a huge amount of material and human resources is allocated to AI-related projects. The government hopes to . China’s Structural and Institutional Advantages, China’s rapid rise and future trajectory in AI could be enabled by policies mentioned above, which stimulate the potential of China’s structural and systemic advantages. First, reinforced by educational arrangements, a giant human capital pool is being generated for AI talent recruitment. Understandably so: AI has a seemingly limitless range applications, from schools to the battlefield. In America the Vulnerable, Brenner offers a chilling and revelatory appraisal of the new faces of war and espionage-virtual battles with dangerous implications for government, business, and all of us. to governments that want to control their own populations using the same methods. According to SIPRI’s survey, China’s domestic and international cross-institute collaboration in the pursuit of the benefits of integrating neural networks with hypersonic glide vehicles has become increasingly common.50 Such applications, including automatic target recognition, auto-piloting, missile fusion, and precision guidance for hypersonic platforms, will enhance the maneuverability and penetration capacity of nuclear missiles, thereby reshaping conventional and nuclear deterrence dynamics.51 On the defensive side, the situational awareness capacity enhanced by AI technology can strengthen China’s nuclear retaliatory capabilities by improving early-warning and missile defense systems. The Promise and Peril of Military Application of Artificial Intelligence, Bulletin of Atomic Scientist, April 23, 2018: https://thebulletin.org/2018/04/the-promise-and-peril-of-military- applications-of-artificial-intelligence/. From the perspective of other countries in the region, China’s willingness to escalate in such scenarios will increase because its AI technology would provide it with a decisive advantage in a conflict with limited costs, despite increasing the potential of accidental escalation.66 Other countries’ have begun to pursue more defense measures, a move that reflects concern about China’s potential threat, including the development of weapon-grade AI technology. While the PLA’s deployment of advanced AI-enabled early warning systems and automation-enabled launch-on-fire missiles may mitigate China’s fear of false negatives, it may intensify U.S. concerns about false positives,such as a nuclear war caused by accidental fire or false detection. 1 ( July 2009): 7–41. According to the Chinese Ministry of Defense, SSF “comprises supporting forces for battlefield environment, information communications, information security, and new technology testing.”59 In intelligentized warfare, the SSF would operate AI- enabled platforms to provide other branches of the Chinese military with sound situational awareness and support decision-making through rapid intelligence processing. In this book, Amy Webb reveals the pervasive, invisible ways in which the foundations of AI -- the people working on the system, their motivations, the technology itself -- is broken. Today, AI is deployed into almost every military application. Foreign material and human resources are being leveraged, as well. Found insideA Sino-U.S. war could take various, and unintended, paths. The Chinese military and China's defense industry . This book will interest military officials, defense industry managers, policy experts in academic think tanks, and students of national security. The Wing Loong I-D is the latest in the Wing Loong Unmanned Aircraft System series developed by the, Chengdu Aircraft Design & Research Institute, One of these is the Marine Lizard, which is not a UCAV, but an autonomous amphibious landing vehicle. The degree to which China can expand on and leapfrog U.S. AI development hinges on everything from the respective countries immigration policies, a willingness of multinational corporations to share research, direct and passive funding, and the extent to which things like counter-intelligence operations can yield results or chill collaboration. Facial recognition company SenseNets, personal information on 2.5 million Chinese citizens it was tracking via an unsecured database.Â, The biggest issue with facial recognition technology in a national defense sense, however, is the. 20  Will Knight, “China May Overtake the U.S. with the Best AI Research in Just Two Years,” MIT Technology Review, March 13, 2019: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/613117/china-may- overtake-the-us-with-the-best-ai-research-in-just-two-years/. 16  http://www.edu.cn/rd/gao_xiao_cheng_guo/gao_xiao_zi _xun/201904/t20190429_1656772.shtml. In this sense, China’s use of AI and autonomy for nuclear offense and defense could take on destabilizing qualities. According to former US Air Force Brigadier General, , China could “weaponize cities” if it succeeds in dominating the fifth generation (5G) of mobile communications. Below is a one-minute video showing how facial recognition technology in Shenzhen works in deterring jaywalking: While authorities claim AI surveillance resulted in higher success in preventing jaywalking, finding missing persons and apprehending terrorists, there is a big potential for misuse, such as in targeting minority groups. Even if the US sells them, it restricts the capabilities of the drones for approved uses. According to The National Interest, China is the biggest exporter of unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), otherwise known as combat drones. Interactive 50  Lora Saalman, “Integration of Neural Networks into Hypersonic Glide Vehicles,” in Lore Saalman, ed., The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Strategic Stability and Nuclear Risk, Volume II (Stockholm: SIPRI, 2019), p24. that prevent it from exporting drones wholesale to other countries. America’s sharpening focus on technology competition with China, The “new normal” in US-China relations: Hardening competition and deep interdependence. Wargames (兵棋推演, bīngqí tuīyǎn) have experienced a renaissance in China, with computer . More importantly, wide deployment of AI-based systems still faces some serious challenges. That said, according to Allen: China’s success has been enabled by its access to global technology research and markets. Found insideChina's Evolving Military Strategy aims to bring knowledge of these important developments to a mass audience of China watchers, policymakers, and the broader foreign policy community by providing a sector-by-sector analysis of changes in ... Furthermore, the Chinese military also reorganized its affiliated research institutes and military universities and adjusted its recruitment policy to realize better management and allocation of human capital. 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